Will AI Become the Shogun?
Current AI Era Through Sengoku Period Insights
Anthropic’s recent publication, “Agentic Misalignment: How LLMs Could Be Insider Threats”, reminded me vividly of the samurai warlords who survived Japan’s Sengoku period. This study quantitatively illustrates that AI might engage in self-preservation and ruthless methods to achieve its goals, reflecting the fierce competition among samurai warlords who once strived to survive the chaos and reach supremacy over a unified Japan. Perhaps surprisingly, the insights necessary to understand AI’s future could be derived from an examination of the Sengoku period. With that in mind, today we will explore the key historical overview essential for future multifaceted discussions.
As those of us living with AI on a daily basis recognize, the situation still resembles the chaotic Sengoku era, with no single AI yet having emerged to unify the AI market—assuming such a market truly exists. Indeed, while some AI entities have begun to stand out, the continuous updates lead to ever-shifting power dynamics, making it impossible to predict which AI will ultimately achieve dominance. This situation becomes clear if we metaphorically equate AIs with Sengoku Daimyo (戦国大名). The term “Sengoku Daimyo” originated from feudal lords known as Daimyo, who evolved independently from earlier positions as Shugo (守護), officials of the Ashikaga shogunate during the Muromachi period.
The Muromachi period commenced with Ashikaga Takauji (足利尊氏, 1305–1358), the founder of the Ashikaga shogunate. Japan’s historical periods can be intricately subdivided, but a clear overview emerges if one tracks the establishment and fall of each shogunate. Briefly, the Kamakura period lasted approximately 150 years, from 1185 when Minamoto no Yoritomo (源頼朝, 1147–1199) established the Kamakura shogunate, until its fall in 1333. Subsequently, the Muromachi period spanned roughly 240 years, from 1336 when Ashikaga Takauji founded the Muromachi shogunate, until its collapse in 1573. The Sengoku period specifically refers to the years from 1467 to 1568. However, rather than standing alone, the Sengoku era is a subdivision within the broader Muromachi period, as the Muromachi shogunate persisted throughout this time without the establishment of a new shogunate. This subtlety often causes confusion. Geographically, the Kamakura shogunate was located in present-day Kamakura city in Kanagawa Prefecture, while the Muromachi shogunate was based in present-day Kyoto.