Tokugawa Shogunate’s Downfall and Japan’s Missed Opportunities
Ignored Warnings and the Slow Unraveling of the Tokugawa Shogunate
In this article, I will discuss the crucial background behind the growing distrust of the Tokugawa Shogunate and how it led people to stage a military coup d’état—namely, the overthrow of the shogunate—at the dawn of modern Japan.
It is not only at the end of the Edo period (the Bakumatsu era) that we find a common pattern whenever Japan enters a new age: the tendency to ignore forward-looking warnings from voices of reason and to continually put off resolving urgent issues.
Previously, I wrote about Hayashi Shihei (1738–1793), who traveled throughout Japan in the mid to late 18th century and was among the first to advocate for coastal defense. The 19th century would prove his warnings accurate, plunging the Shogunate into extreme turmoil.
Shihei grasped the realities of Western imperialism through extensive discussions with Dutch and Chinese merchants in Nagasaki. Anticipating a future invasion, he tirelessly urged the Shogunate to manufacture cannons and weaponry and to station them along Japan’s coastline. Yet Shihei’s appeals were dismissed as lunacy by influential figures in the Shogunate, various domains, and even the Imperial Court, effectively silencing him.
History, however, would unfold just as he had foreseen. Around 1806, Russia began expanding into Sakhalin. Then in 1824, twelve British sailors landed illegally on Japanese shores and were arrested. Western warships and other vessels increasingly navigated Japan’s waters, applying pressure through unauthorized whaling and other actions to force the country’s ports open.
By 1852, the King of the Netherlands issued his second warning to the Shogunate to open the country. That same year, the United States Congress authorized a naval expedition to Japan.
In 1853, Commodore Matthew Perry arrived in Uraga aboard the so-called “Black Ships,” bearing a letter from the U.S. President—an event that sent shock waves throughout Japan.
Consequently, the north faced a Russian threat in Hokkaido, while in the south, the Ogasawara and Ryukyu (Okinawa) Islands found themselves effectively occupied by the United States. With an American landing on mainland Japan all but inevitable, the Shogunate—having delayed any real action—fell into chaos. Only then did it begin seriously debating whether to open the nation or maintain its policy of isolation.
Yet the Shogunate had made no preparations at all. Even if it had chosen to remain closed, Japan lacked the military capability to drive away the Black Ships. Thus, for the first time in its history, the country was confronted with the genuine prospect of foreign occupation.
In modern history, the arrival of the Black Ships is often regarded as the trigger for the Meiji Restoration, a military coup d’état that led to the establishment of a modern government. But that view is flawed. In reality, the Shogunate’s downfall stemmed simply from its continued refusal to heed well-informed warnings and its complete failure to ready any form of military defense. If we identify Hayashi Shihei as the pioneering voice of caution, the truth is that his predictions simply materialized some sixty years after he first issued them.
Ultimately, the debate over opening the country versus maintaining isolation reached no productive conclusion, and the Shogunate, mired in bureaucratic deadlock, resorted to a truly astonishing measure.
Rather than allocating funds to bolster its military defenses in response to foreign pressure, what did the Shogunate do?
Astonishingly, it ordered shrines and temples to devote themselves solely to prayers. In other words, it sought to address this pressing national crisis through prayer alone. This extraordinary and misguided policy serves as a telling example of how utterly dysfunctional the Shogunate had already become by that time.
At this juncture, the Shogunate requested prayers from the Seven Shrines and Seven Temples (*) and the Twenty-Two Shrines (**), while making monetary offerings—gold to Ise Grand Shrine and silver to temples such as Zōjōji and Kan’ei-ji—year after year, increasing the amount with each passing cycle.
(*) Seven Shrines and Seven Temples (七社七寺): Shrines and temples closely associated with the Imperial Family. The seven shrines include Ise Jingū, Iwashimizu Hachimangū, Kamo Shrine, Matsunoo Taisha, Hirano Shrine, Fushimi Inari Taisha, and Kasuga Taisha. The seven temples are Ninna-ji, Tōdai-ji, Kōfuku-ji, Enryaku-ji, Onjō-ji (Mii-dera), Tō-ji, and Kōryū-ji.
(**) Twenty-Two Shrines (二十二社): The most prestigious shrines in medieval court rituals, ranked as the highest in the hierarchy of state-sponsored Shinto worship.
As a result, any remaining confidence in the Shogunate collapsed. Patriots concerned about Japan’s future decided to take matters into their own hands, resolving to stand against Western powers. Tokugawa Nariaki (1800–1860), the lord of the Mito domain, captured the Shogunate’s dire state in a letter when he wrote:
“The Shogunate has resorted to paying money to Kan’eiji Temple in Ueno, relying on Buddhist protection. Even if they have only a little money, it would obviously be far more effective to spend it on weapons.”
Interestingly, the panicked Shogunate did have a historical rationale for acting this way, rooted in a certain legend.
That legend reaches back to Japan’s very first experience of external pressure: the Mongol invasions led by Kublai Khan (in 1274 and 1281). Had the Mongol armies, having unified East Asia, succeeded in landing and seizing Japanese territory, the country would likely have become a vassal of the Yuan Dynasty. Yet what did the Kamakura Shogunate do in response? It abandoned any practical measures and instead ordered temples nationwide to pray for victory.
Then in 1281, as the Mongols mounted a full-scale invasion and prepared to land a massive force in Kyushu, a sudden storm struck. The Mongol fleet was destroyed, and Japan emerged victorious.
This event was used to reinvigorate the government’s waning authority and was later disseminated politically as the legend of the “divine wind” (kamikaze). Modern research has in fact uncovered mounting evidence that such a storm did occur, sinking the Mongol vessels. Thus, the legend appears to be true.
At the end of the Edo period, however, no such miraculous storm would come to Japan’s aid.
Hence, the pattern of ill-prepared leaders falling into a state of panic the moment a real threat materializes—responding with prayer rather than tangible measures—has recurred at several turning points in Japanese history, with the final years of the Tokugawa Shogunate being a prime example.
The result was the forced opening of the nation by Western powers and the subsequent Meiji Restoration at home, culminating in the collapse of the Shogunate.