Hayashi Shihei and the Ignored Warnings That Foretold Japan’s Crisis
Hayashi Shihei’s Prophecies and the Unheeded Warnings That Led to Tokugawa’s Fall
In this article, I will spotlight a figure who was among the earliest to advocate for the crucial importance of maritime defense in anticipation of modern Japan’s arrival.
Most history books date the beginning of modern Japan to 1853, when four ships of the U.S. Navy’s East India Squadron—led by Commodore Matthew Perry—crossed the Atlantic, traveled via India, China, and Okinawa, and finally arrived in Uraga (modern-day Yokosuka in Kanagawa Prefecture). These ships are famously referred to as the “Black Ships.”
When the Black Ships arrived, the Tokugawa shogunate was already dysfunctional and had no effective response. As a result, it collapsed in an internal coup, leading to the establishment of a modern government.
Because of this sequence of events, the external pressure exerted by the Black Ships is often said to be the direct cause that set modern Japan in motion. In truth, however, the primary cause was the shogunate’s lack of preparedness in foreign policy.
In fact, long before the arrival of the Black Ships, there was someone who foresaw the impending turmoil and urgently advocated for countermeasures. That person was Hayashi Shihei (1738–1793).
His father had once been an influential official in the shogunate but, for some undisclosed reason, lost his position and became a wanderer, leaving on a journey by himself when Shihei was just three years old. The abandoned Shihei was taken in by an uncle who was a doctor connected to a feudal lord. Later, because Shihei’s famously beautiful elder sister entered the service of the lord of the Sendai domain, he relocated to Sendai.
Remarkably for that era, Shihei spent his entire life traveling to many parts of Japan. More than simply broadening his horizons, his travels served one distinct purpose: to develop a theory of national defense.
Today, it is taken for granted that Japan is an island nation surrounded by sea. But back then, while people acknowledged it was an island country, almost no one considered its insular nature in terms of national defense.
Because the country had enjoyed over a century of peace under its isolationist policy (sakoku), the shogunate officials did not prioritize defense. Indeed, the only port open to foreign trade at the time was Nagasaki, and commerce there was strictly limited to Dutch and Chinese merchants; for most Japanese living elsewhere, it might as well have been another country altogether.
A major event in 1771 suddenly shattered this complacent atmosphere. The trigger was Maurice Benyovszky (1746–1786), who fought against Russia under the Bar Confederation seeking Polish independence. Captured by the Russian army, he escaped from Kamchatka in 1771, seized a Russian ship, and made port in Japan. There, he handed a document to the Dutch chief factor in Nagasaki.
This document was a warning that Russia harbored ambitions to invade Japan. The Dutch in Nagasaki passed this information to the shogunate, but the shogunate chose to ignore the issue and kept it hidden from public knowledge.
It has since come to light—especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union—that Russia’s aim at the time was not truly the invasion of Japan. Russia was primarily interested in Qing China. Since Alaska was then Russian territory, Russia hoped to acquire a Japanese port to facilitate the transport of supplies to Alaska.
Hayashi Shihei had visited Nagasaki in 1767 and 1769, where he interacted with Chinese and Dutch merchants. In 1772, he traveled to Hokkaido, a key region in Russia’s southward expansion.
Through these journeys, Shihei gained an objective understanding of conditions in various countries, and—unaware of the shogunate’s internal dynamics—he formulated an argument for protecting an island nation. This, however, roused the ire of powerful officials.
In 1785, he published his first major work, Sangoku Tsuran Zusetsu (“Illustrated Survey of Three Countries”). It introduces, accompanied by illustrations, the cultures and customs of Korea, Ryukyu (present-day Okinawa), and Ezo (present-day Hokkaido). Based on these observations, Shihei urged the shogunate to manage these territories correctly from a national defense perspective.
In particular, having learned through Dutch intermediaries about advancements in Western culture, Shihei believed that if Japan ever came into conflict with the West, the damage to Japan could be enormous. Consequently, he engaged in his own research on diplomacy, frontier administration, and coastal defense, using every channel he could find to warn high-ranking officials in the shogunate, the various domains, and the Imperial Court.
Yet none of these officials heeded his message; they were preoccupied with maintaining their own positions and paid no attention to Shihei’s words. Worse still, slanderous attacks against him mounted, and he was branded a dangerous individual, effectively silencing him.
In this situation, the only course left to Shihei was not to appeal directly to government officials but to publish his ideas for those who might share his concerns. Thus, he produced the culmination of his life’s work in 1791, Kaikoku Heidan (“Discussion of Maritime Defense”).
Because no publisher dared touch this politically sensitive text, Shihei self-published it by borrowing money. For that reason, only about thirty copies of this groundbreaking book were printed.
In Kaikoku Heidan, Shihei asserted that because Japan is surrounded by ocean, maritime defense is of paramount importance, and that cannons should be proactively deployed in preparation for naval battles. Astonishing as it may seem today, officials of the time genuinely believed that no foreign ship would ever enter a port other than Nagasaki, which alone was officially open to trade.
This illusion was shattered the next year, 1792, after Kaikoku Heidan’s publication, when Russians carrying a letter from the Russian emperor arrived at Nemuro in Hokkaido, requesting trade relations.
Because this occurred so soon after Shihei’s book appeared, the shogunate regarded it as an act of criticism against them. As a result, Kaikoku Heidan was banned in 1792, Shihei was placed under house arrest, and he passed away in 1793.
All this happened sixty years before the arrival of the Black Ships. It offers a glimpse of how the shogunate had already ceased to function effectively. Bit by bit, the government’s inadequacies became apparent, resentment toward the shogunate grew, and in time it led to a coup that toppled the old regime.
In that sense, although Hayashi Shihei’s ideas were dismissed during his lifetime, they were passed on to the next generation—ultimately becoming a major driving force for the birth of modern Japan.