Ansei Earthquake and Meiji Restoration

Fujita Tōko and Saigō Takamori’s Death Defined Modern Japan’s Future

Yesterday’s article provided an overview, but today I intend to delve into more detail. As previously mentioned, Japan is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world, experiencing frequent seismic events of varying magnitudes. Japan reportedly has over 2,000 active fault lines capable of causing earthquakes, and being an island nation surrounded by seas, it also faces the risk of tsunamis. Furthermore, the country is dotted with numerous volcanoes, posing continuous threats of eruptions. Having survived in such an environment for generations, the Japanese have developed a perspective toward natural disasters markedly different from people in other countries.

Moreover, it has already been established that major earthquakes occur at somewhat predictable intervals. As I’ve written before, the likelihood of a magnitude-7 earthquake striking the Tokyo area, known as the “Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake,” within the next 30 years is around 70%. Similarly, the probability of a massive magnitude 8–9 Nankai Trough earthquake, significantly affecting western Japan from the Tokai region to Kansai, was revised this January and raised to 80% within the next 30 years. Besides these prominent risks, earthquakes continue to occur nationwide.

In Japan, earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions are not merely seen as natural disasters; rather, they are often interpreted as messages from nature to society. This perspective likely originates from the spiritual concept of nature worship deeply rooted in Japanese culture, reflecting a sense that they are listening to nature’s voice. Historically, massive earthquakes have conveyed distinct messages pertinent to their times, often closely linked to subsequent social transformations. Whether these societal changes lead to positive or negative outcomes varies according to each era. By examining recent major earthquakes, we can gain insights to better understand and anticipate future societal developments.

The first significant example I want to discuss is the great Ansei Earthquake (安政の大地震), a magnitude-7 class quake that occurred on November 11, 1855, directly beneath southern Kanto, severely impacting Edo (modern-day Tokyo). Notably, just a year earlier, in 1854, two massive earthquakes, the Ansei Tokai Earthquake (magnitude 8.4) and the Ansei Nankai Earthquake (also magnitude 8.4), struck consecutively within just 32 hours, devastating a vast area stretching from the Tokai region to Shikoku. Coastal areas, particularly in Wakayama, suffered catastrophic destruction from the resulting tsunami. This series of events represented a rare instance where both a Nankai Trough earthquake and a metropolitan earthquake occurred consecutively, triggering a significant social upheaval characterized by anti-shogunate sentiment, ultimately paving the way for a new era.